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History and Critical Analysis

The Dictator's Calculus: How Habyarimana Used Coffee to Buy Power and Genocide to Keep It

A five-part series using Wintrobe's loyalty-repression model and Verwimp's commune-level data to show that the Rwandan genocide was not the explosion of ancient hatreds but the rational outcome of a budget constraint the dictator could no longer meet.

The Peace That Never Came: Measuring the True Scale of Modern War

A four-part series tracing the arc from Cold War-era academic optimism about declining conflict, through 25 years of contradicting data, to two new metrics — the Human Cost Index and Casualty Rate — that expose the true human cost and velocity of asymmetric modern war.