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Heltaher
Heltaher

History and Critical Analysis

The Dictator's Calculus: How Habyarimana Used Coffee to Buy Power and Genocide to Keep It

·565 words·3 mins
History and Critical Analysis Dictatorship Political Economy Rwanda Genocide Wintrobe Model Historical Case Studies Political Economy Policy and Critique Development and Inequality
A five-part series using Wintrobe's loyalty-repression model and Verwimp's commune-level data to show that the Rwandan genocide was not the explosion of ancient hatreds but the rational outcome of a budget constraint the dictator could no longer meet.

The Peace That Never Came: Measuring the True Scale of Modern War

·429 words·3 mins
History and Critical Analysis Armed Conflict Conflict Data Human Cost Index Geopolitical Violence War and Peace Gaza Historical Case Studies Military and Logistics Policy and Critique Development and Inequality
A four-part series tracing the arc from Cold War-era academic optimism about declining conflict, through 25 years of contradicting data, to two new metrics — the Human Cost Index and Casualty Rate — that expose the true human cost and velocity of asymmetric modern war.