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Historical Case Studies

The Displacement Economy: What Happens to People Who Survive

A five-part series examining the system-level failure hidden behind displacement statistics: 117 million people forcibly displaced worldwide, a median exile duration exceeding 20 years, and an international framework built around a crisis it was never designed to make permanent.

The Dictator's Calculus: How Habyarimana Used Coffee to Buy Power and Genocide to Keep It

A five-part series using Wintrobe's loyalty-repression model and Verwimp's commune-level data to show that the Rwandan genocide was not the explosion of ancient hatreds but the rational outcome of a budget constraint the dictator could no longer meet.

The Commodity Curse: How What You Grow Decides How You're Governed

A five-part series examining why the countries best endowed with natural resources are so frequently the worst governed, and how the arithmetic of commodity dependence — not culture, not climate, not colonial history alone — explains the pattern.