A five-part investigation into historical episodes where entire populations succumbed to shared, irrational, or panic-driven behavioral feedback loops.
A five-part series examining the system-level failure hidden behind displacement statistics: 117 million people forcibly displaced worldwide, a median exile duration exceeding 20 years, and an international framework built around a crisis it was never designed to make permanent.
A five-part series using Wintrobe's loyalty-repression model and Verwimp's commune-level data to show that the Rwandan genocide was not the explosion of ancient hatreds but the rational outcome of a budget constraint the dictator could no longer meet.
A five-part series examining why the countries best endowed with natural resources are so frequently the worst governed, and how the arithmetic of commodity dependence — not culture, not climate, not colonial history alone — explains the pattern.
A four-part series tracing the arc from Cold War-era academic optimism about declining conflict, through 25 years of contradicting data, to two new metrics — the Human Cost Index and Casualty Rate — that expose the true human cost and velocity of asymmetric modern war.